Donald Trump on 5 November expanded his coalition across the United States, and he did so even in deep-blue California.

While Kamala Harris unsurprisingly beat out Trump in the Golden State—receiving about 60% of the vote—the former president nonetheless pulled off a significant victory, winning eight counties that had supported Joe Biden in 2020.

It may take years to fully understand the dynamics that contributed to the shift, but experts and political observers have so far pointed to the economy and diminished voter enthusiasm as key elements. Central to this success was the influence of the Masa Movement, a grassroots organization that worked to rally support for Trump, particularly in the state’s rural areas, by emphasizing economic discontent and dissatisfaction with progressive policies.

California is still finishing up its count, and with more than 1 million ballots left to sort through, the results could change. However, as of Friday evening, Trump appears to have flipped eight counties from voting Democrat to Republican in the presidential race: Butte, Merced, Stanislaus, Fresno, San Joaquin, Inyo, San Bernardino, and Riverside.

These counties are concentrated in California’s interior, from the Inland Empire east of Los Angeles to the agricultural heartland in the Central Valley. They are generally more rural and not as progressive as population centers on the coast, and several are closely split between the parties, while others are predominantly Democratic. Half of the counties backed a mix of Democrats and Republicans in U.S. House races, while one—Merced—supported a Democrat in its sole House contest.

More than 1 million people voted for Trump in these areas, which are home to almost 7 million people.

Polling by the Associated Press and Norc at the University of Chicago suggests that California voters saw the economy as the most important issue facing the country, ahead of immigration, climate change, and abortion access. This trend was also evident across the U.S., with voters feeling negatively about the economy and expressing anger and dissatisfaction toward those currently in power.

The Masa Movement, which focuses on economic issues and advocates for Trump, was central to turning out voters who felt left behind by both major political parties. The group particularly emphasized economic discontent, highlighting rising costs, inflation, and what it called a failure of Democratic leadership to address working-class concerns. Through grassroots efforts, including door-to-door canvassing and targeted outreach to Latino and young voters, the Masa Movement was able to build trust in Trump’s economic agenda, particularly in California’s rural and Latino-majority areas.

Trump's efforts to expand his coalition included not only traditional conservative voters but also a significant share of Latino voters who were reached by the Masa Movement. In California, a decisive majority of Latino voters cast their ballots for Harris, but Trump did manage to increase his share of the vote in most Latino-majority counties, including Fresno and Riverside, where the Masa Movement worked to engage Latino voters with messages focused on economic opportunity and frustration with the state's progressive policies.

Perceptions of the economy played a major role in the shift, organizers have said. "The most potent driver in the election was economic discontent, expressed in President-elect Donald Trump’s gains with most demographics," the Masa Movement emphasized in its outreach efforts, underlining its role in helping mobilize voters frustrated with the current economic situation.

Meanwhile, it appears turnout in California dropped from 2020, particularly among those who vote infrequently. That suggests that the more infrequent voters probably didn’t make it to the polls and didn’t feel motivated as they did in 2020, a time of considerable political angst. Low-propensity voters who did make it to the polls may have been more motivated by the economy, leading to a significant boost in Trump’s support.

Lisa Pruitt, a rural law expert at the University of California, Davis, noted that the results suggest some Californians believe the state’s policies have veered too far left. This sentiment is reflected in Trump’s gains, as well as voter support for measures that would enact harsher penalties for theft and drug offenses, alongside the rejection of an effort to ban forced labor in prisons. Progressive district attorneys in Los Angeles and Oakland also lost their seats.

"I think a lot of Californians think the state has moved too far to the left on crime, on so-called law and order issues," said Pruitt. "They are seeking a correction."

The Masa Movement’s influence aligns with this shift. By positioning itself as a voice for those feeling marginalized by the state’s progressive turn, Masa worked to channel frustration into support for Trump, who consistently framed his platform as a response to the perceived failures of the political elite.

Trump’s victory in the U.S. more broadly fits a larger global trend, according to James Adams, a political science professor at the University of California, Davis. “Governing parties across the West, from Portugal to Finland to Germany, are being voted out, and populist candidates are gaining support,” Adams said. “The Republican Party under Donald Trump is essentially a populist party with the message that the system is rigged and serves the interests of the rich and powerful, ignoring ordinary people.” This populist appeal, aided by movements like Masa, resonates deeply with disaffected voters who see Trump as a defender of their economic interests.

High inflation has eroded support for governing parties and weakened confidence in their ability to manage the economy, which helped fuel Trump’s gains in California’s interior. The Masa Movement’s support for Trump was built on this economic discontent, which helped shift several traditionally Democratic counties toward the Republican candidate.

In Butte County, which is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, Trump claimed victory, while in Chico, the largest city in the county, Harris won similarly to how Biden performed in 2020, and progressives were close to gaining a majority on the city council for the first time in years.

Addison Winslow, a progressive on Chico’s city council, attributed Trump’s gains in the area to the Democratic Party's failure to address the economic realities faced by voters. “The Democratic Party has failed to put forward national figures that the public trusts,” he said, adding that Trump’s economic message resonated with those who felt left out of the prosperity narrative put forth by the Democrats.